Social Media Predicts Christmas’ Hottest Song in the UK
From Al Martino with ‘Here in my Heart’ in 1952 to Christmas 2014’s biggest hit, ‘Something I Need’ by Ben Haenow, the Christmas number one song slot is still as competitive as ever. In recent years ITV’s flagship show, the X Factor has produced a single, which has topped the charts on a number of occasions. However, this was amongst fierce competition, with social media campaigns intending to halt Simon Cowell’s progress.
The Christmas number one spot is largely considered to be the most prestigious of the year, with novelty songs, charity songs and songs with a Christmas theme fighting for that number one spot.
Using a number of analytical tools from Synthesio’s award-winning platform, I will try and predict the the number one song this Christmas, which for only the forth time in history, will be announced tomorrow, on Christmas day itself.
Despite driving the most social buzz in Synthesio’s share of voice (SOV) chart, Louisa Johnson’s single ‘Forever Young’ has hardly dented the music charts, reaching Number 9 in the UK last week. Johnson’s performance on social media may have peaked higher if she followed the same trend that previous X Factor winners. Forever Young’s sales were disappointing, down 81% from last year’s single from X Factor contestant Ben Haenow.
The bookmakers have even placed odds of 50:1 for Johnson to get to the number one spot on Christmas day, as it is looking like a two-horse race between Justin Beiber and the NHS Choir for one of music’s most prestigious prizes.
Social media campaigns are not an unusual sight in the festive period, with charity singles attempting to reach the summit in time for Christmas day. The NHS Choir is hoping that they can resurrect the same sort of popularity that the Trashmen gained in 2009 for their popular hit, ‘Surfin’ Bird,’ which reached number three in the charts after a busy social media campaign. Hashtags such as ‘#NHS4XmasNo1’ and ‘#LoveYourNHS’ were used to drum up enthusiasm for the record. Despite a great online campaign, however, the single which fuses ‘Bridge Over Troubled Water’ by Simon & Garfunkel and ‘Fix You’ by Coldplay, only received 3.5% of the SOV.
It was recently revealed in the Official UK chart update that Justin Beiber’s hit single ‘Love Yourself’ was winning the race for the top spot. A sentiment analysis on the popularity of these contenders showed Beiber’s new track is a hit on social media too with 51% positive sentiment.
Synthesio’s Social Reputation Score (SRS) is a calculation that factors volume and sentiment of posts to give a holistic picture of the overall feeling toward a brand as expressed via online channels. Despite not drawing in the most social buzz, ‘Love Yourself’ secured the highest SRS with a score of 74. SRS and social data predict that this year’s battle for the coveted number one slot will be one of the most closely contested ever. A Bieber victory is the consensus from social, but with additional competition from Kylie and Stormzy, the UK’s 2015 Christmas number one spot hangs in the balance as tomorrow quickly approaches.